Hobson's Choice

Here's an odd thought: in the Scottish elections we're not voting for which government we want; we're voting for which type of SNP government we get.

The thing is, there are only three outcomes that are remotely likely. The most likely, per the polls as they stand, is that the SNP will win an outright majority of seats (and, indeed, quite possibly a significant majority). In which case we will, of course, get an SNP government.

The second possibility, and the next most likely, is essentially a rerun of the last election - the SNP fall slightly short of an outright majority, but the Greens gain enough seats as to give a pro-independence majority. In which case we'll get an SNP minority government, backed by the Greens. And things will carry on pretty much as they are.

The third possibility, and the least likely of the three, is that the pro-indepence parties will lose enough seats that the Tories, Labour, and the Lib Dems between them hold a majority of the seats. However, neither the Tories nor Labour will have enough seats to build a government either alone or with the Lib Dems - it would take an alliance of all three to form a government. And there is simply no way that either Boris Johnson or Kier Starmer would countenance such a thing. (Jackson Carlaw and Richard Leonard might, given the perks of the job, but they'd be over-ruled.)

The upshot of that is that either the SNP will then form a government that is then utterly paralysed by the combined opposition, or we'll end up with another set of elections (in which case, see above). There is basically no prospect of anyone else forming a government.

Which really isn't a healthy place for Scotland's politics to be. It's not even as if you could look at either the Tories or Labour and see any viable government in waiting. Quite aside from them having no chance of winning the seats, there just isn't the talent there for it to be anything other than a disaster. The SNP have to have the job since, for all their faults (which are increasingly obvious), they are able to offer governance that is at least marginally competent.

It's shocking that that has become the bar to be aspired to.