Tuesday, June 14, 2022

I'll Believe It When I See It

Today Nicola Sturgeon announced the start of a new independence campaign, with the intent to have a second referendum in 2023. Her stated intent is to request a Section 30 order, but to go ahead without if need be.

I'm afraid I'm deeply skeptical of this. Indeed, I'm doubtful of both her ability to do as she has said but even her intent to do so. I think there's a distinct possibility that this announcement is about placating factions within the SNP-voting base, but may well be intended at the outset to fail.

The biggest block, as far as I can see, is that Westminster retains the right to pass any legislation it wishes over any part of the UK. So if Holyrood does go ahead with a referendum in the absence of agreement, rather than challenging it in course (or perhaps as well as doing so), Westminster can simply pass legislation repealing the relevant Act. And, for good measure, barring Holyrood from trying again. And, unlike in the question of the referendum bill itself, there is absolutely no doubt about Westminster's right to do that - they certainly can.

 

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