Well, Thank Goodness That's Over

The Scottish elections are finally done. Thank goodness!

Unfortunately, it was a fairly unedifying choice. There were a huge array of no-hope micro-parties, but of those actually able to win at least one seat the choices were grim: evil, very evil, mostly useless, almost completely useless, completely useless, and legitimately insane.

Even before it all kicked off, there were really only two questions of interest:

• Would the SNP somehow get a majority? The odds were spectacularly against it, but stranger things have happened, and if it had happened then the consequences could have been interesting.
• Just how many seats would Reform win, and at whose expense?

In the event, the answer to the first was the expected "no". In fact, the SNP lost both seats and vote share. We've ended up with a mostly-balanced parliament otherwise, with a nominal pro-independence majority, but with the minority SNP government able to pass legislation if they can gain support from any other party.

The answer to the other question was a fairly depressing 17, though these came almost entirely at the expense of the Tories. So not great, but not seismic. (It's perhaps worth noting that I don't approve of the other parties now closing ranks to try to isolate Reform in the chamber. Firstly because I think it will be counter-productive - people voted Reform largely in protest at our MSPs refusing to listen to them; doubling down on this will only strengthen Reform. Secondly, though, is that those people who voted Reform are entitled to representation. I don't like how they've voted, but that is beside the point.)

Anyway, the upshot of this is that everything will basically carry on as they have been: the SNP will form a minority government, Swinney will ask for an independence referendum for form's sake, Starmer will say "no", and then we'll have five years of not much happening. And then we go again.

(Incidentally, Starmer has significant justification for that "no" - the SNP made clear that an SNP single-party majority would be the mandate for a referendum, and they didn't get that; in fact they lost both seats and vote share. But, of course, that entire argument is nonsense - in a representative democracy the mandate for something is that a majority of elected representatives vote for it. The real justification is rather more stark: the constitution is a reserved matter, and Starmer says "no". How you square that against the right of Scottish, and Welsh, people for self-determination is a topic for another day.)

One last thought: In the Scottish election Labour once again lost both seats and vote share. It is deeply unpopular here. In Wales, Labour have lost control of the Senedd for the first time ever. Labour have never had any presence in Northern Ireland (where, again, a party in favour of leaving the UK is in government). And in England Labour have just taken a major kicking due to their huge unpopularity.  There's no part of the UK where Labour are actually popular. And yet, Labour have a huge majority in the Commons, a consequence of a voting system that doesn't really work. That's not a good situation to be in in a representative democracy - in what sense does parliament represent the wishes of the people?

#14: "Our Lady of Mysterious Ailments", by T.L. Huchu