Two Quick Notes About a Plebiscitary Election

Just two quick further thoughts about the use of a Westminster election as a de facto referendum:

• It's worth noting that this means that the franchise would be more restricted than in the 2014 referendum, and indeed in the proposed 2023 referendum, Holyrood elections, or similar. In Scotland the right to vote extends to 16 year olds, and is based on residency rather than citizenship... but not for General Elections. That may well be enough to swing the answer from "yes" to "no".
• There is a question of what it means to 'win' such a thing, since first past the post means that the SNP have an overwhelming majority of Scottish MPs on a narrow minority of the vote. Here I need to note that while I am in favour of independence, I am a democrat first - I won't support independence unless a majority of votes cast are in favour.

Indyref 2: What Next?

I was somewhat surprised by Nicola Sturgeon's statement in the Scottish Parliament today - it was considerably more clear cut than I had expected. I also found it reassuringly close to my preferred set of options - try for a Section 30 first, if that fails try for a referendum without, and if that fails use an election as a de facto referendum. I would have preferred that to be a Holyrood election rather than a General Election, but we can't have everything.

My big unknown concerns the question of what happens next? It's now clear that Westminster can't stop Scotland having a vote, of some description, so what is their best play?

My first thought is that they may well try to obstruct as much as they can - deny the Section 30 request, fight through the courts as long as possible, and if necessary repeal the relevant Act and/or specifically legislate to ensure the referendum can't go ahead. That buys time, but it doesn't stop the vote - the General Election remains the fallback, and can't be avoided.

I did wonder whether they might consider some legislation to try to block the SNP turning the General Election into a de facto referendum (perhaps by making it illegal to campaign for the break up of the country), but it's hard to see how they can do that without major problems in Northern Ireland. They might, of course, still do that, but let's hope not.

So that would suggest that the General Election will indeed become the fallback, a de facto referendum. Not my preference, but we really do need to get this done.

But...

I do wonder if Westminster wouldn't be better coming to the table and negotiating. "Yes, you can have a Section 30 order. But..." That probably gives them the most control over the process, and may give the union the best chance of survival. The big problem with it, though, is that there's only a limited scope for negotiation - there have been lots of fixes along the way, and patience with them is exceedingly thin. So trying to limit the franchise, or require a super-majority, or similar is probably a non-starter. Their best bet may be to influence the question - cast it as Remain/Leave rather than Yes/No. But I'm really not sure how effective that truly is.

Of course, there is one other option - block the referendum, let the SNP fight the election on that one-line manifesto, and then simply ignore the result. A few years ago I would have said that they surely wouldn't do that... but things are very different now.

The Melon Incident

We had my birthday BBQ on Sunday (a few days in advance of the actual event). It was, once again, an enjoyable affair. This time we were exceptionally lucky with the weather - it rained before and after the cooking, but was dry for a couple of hours at the key time.

The one small fly in the ointment came in the middle of the afternoon when Funsize sought out some melon to eat, only to discover it was all gone. She was consequently very upset, not least because she hadn't actually had any. Fortunately, some kind soul made a trip to Morrisons yesterday and bought some for her to enjoy.

As always, we over-catered for the BBQ. In truth, I'd rather have too much than too little, but it does seem that we'd be better off without quite so much excess. I'll need to look at that, as my calculations should have been okay, but this proved not to be accurate. Still, I'll be having a BBQ at work before too long, so perhaps there is scope for using up some of the leftovers.

Funny How Things Turn

Last year the Tories won a huge byelection victory in Hartlepool. At that point their command of the political map was absolute, and growing stronger all the time - they were riding high in the polls, they were up against a feeble opposition, they had the media in their pocket, and they were rapidly consolidating their hold by drawing up boundary changes, taking control of elections, and disenfranchising the poor. They basically looked unbeatable.

And then Partygate happened.

It turns out that the British people don't, after all, like being taken for fools. They don't like being lied to, and given the runaround. They don't like being instructed to make sacrifices, some of them truly terrible, only to have those who make the rules break the rules and then crow about it.

And they don't like that Boris absolutely and completely refused to take the fall that was unquestionably coming.

Last night the Tories suffered two utterly crushing byelection defeats. It is likely, if there were to be a General Election in the near future, that they would be utterly devastated, to the extent that even Boris and Jacob Rees-Mogg would lose their seats.

The game is up, and all because Boris and Carrie just couldn't bear not to party in the pandemic.

Obi-Wan

LC and I have been watching through the Obi-Wan series on Disney+. It has been pretty good, though it is very much not an unalloyed joy - each episode seemed to have something that just didn't work all that well. Still, it was decent fun, and good to catch up with both the main characters.

Having said that, I'm very much hoping that this is a one-and-done series. Like "Picard", it was a good story that was worth the telling, but my feeling is that it was good once, but would very definitely be a case of diminishing returns. Plus, I'm increasingly inclined to think that Star Wars needs to move on from the Skywalker Saga and the ancilliary stories, and instead do something genuinely new and unconnected.

Netflix: Coming to the End of the Road?

We've had Netflix now for a few years. Initially, it was good value - pretty much immediately there was "Star Trek: Discovery", which was soon joined by "The Witcher", "The Good Place", and a bunch of others. But it has gradually been winding down in use and thus value. Worse, it has lost Discovery, and will soon be losing the rest of Trek, and it has been getting fewer and fewer interesting new shows.

The truth is, it has just begun to be overshadowed by Disney+ (which is extremely good) and even Prime. And now, with Paramount+ coming on-stream, and with Now TV scooping up most of the best films, the offering is looking increasingly threadbare.

The upshot is that I think we're now closer to the end of our time with Netflix than to the start. It's not time yet, but the time to cancel is coming.

What that means in practice is this:

For the time being, we'll keep it, and continue watching the shows we're currently watching. However we won't start watching anything new on a whim - unless there's something that jumps out at us as "you must watch this!", of course.

Over time, that means that the list of shows we watch will gradually drop - they'll move to other services, come to their end, or drop in quality. If nothing new is being added, and things are ending, it will fall from use.

And every so often we'll need to ask ourselves whether it is still worth the money. As long as that remains a "yes", we'll keep it (and, for the moment, it's a "yes", although not by much), but when the time comes that that changes, it will be time to pull the plug.

Of course, all that said, I'm more or less minded to think that the best approach to all these streaming services is actually to be quite mercenary with them - drop in for a few months, binge a bunch of stuff, and then move on to the next one. Right now, Disney+ seems to be the only one that really justifies a permanent spot.

#20: "Kobold Guide to Monsters", by Kobold Press

Experimental Cookery 2022: Aubergine and Potato Curry

This one came from the Tesco magazine, so I don't expect it is even remotely authentic! However, it tasted okay to me. (LC was less enamored of it. It appears that her appreciation of aubergines is very much conditional on how they are cooked.)

The meal was easy to prepare, if a little time-consuming - about an hour from start to finish. That said, it may have felt worse than it really was, as I spent almost the whole of Saturday afternoon cooking one thing or another. And, as an added bonus, it provided not only a dinner for the two of us, but also a lunch for me on Monday (with one final portion that was discarded).

All in all, I think that's a pretty good showing. I don't think this will be being added to our permanent 'veggie' repertoire, but it might be good to have as an occasional change.

#19: "The Gates of Firestorm Peak", by Bruce Cordell

Playing With Fire

As I've mentioned, I'm deeply skeptical of the SNP's chances of actually holding a second independence referendum next year. However, I've been deeply worried at some of the responses to the announcement.

On the one hand, we have various strands of the unionist camp who have been positively gleeful in announcing that of course it won't happen because of course Westminster have an absolute veto - they'll say "no", and that's the end of the matter.

The major reason that that's problematic is that it cuts right through a crucial point of principle: is Scotland a voluntary member of a union, courtesy of having had a vote in 2014, or is Scotland an imperial possession, that was only permitted that vote by the very great generosity of an indulgent (and arrogant) Prime Minister?

If the answer to that is "we're a voluntary member of a union", then Scotland must have the right to ask itself if we want to remain in that union - unilaterally, whenever we want, and indeed as often as we want. (It would be reasonable to specify in law a "cooling down" period between votes. At present, however, no such period is defined - and if one is to be introduced, it must take effect after the next such referendum. We need to know what we're voting for.)

(The "once in a generation" thing was campaign rhetoric by Alex Salmond who, not surprisingly, isn't the definitive authority on anything. It certainly wasn't a promise, a condition, or in any way binding. But even if it had been, UK law does actually define what a "generation" is in terms of a referendum for leaving the UK, which is specified in the Good Friday Agreement as 7 years. Which, of course, have already passed.)

On the other hand, we have had various people suggesting that if the SNP go ahead with an advisory referendum without Westminster approval, the UK government should follow the example of Spain with Catalonia, and violently repress Scottish democracy. Which is an utterly abhorrent thing to suggest, and which I'll therefore waste no more time on.

Fundamentally, though, many of the unionist commentators are coming to the position that Westminster should have a permanent veto on a referendum and that they should permanently exercise it; and that, therefore, Scotland should never be allowed a democratic route to independence.

I find that really quite scary, because while it may be superficially attractive it betrays a lack of deep thought. If you close off every peaceful, democratic route to independence, that doesn't end the struggle for independence. It will stops it being peaceful and democratic - a prospect that is, of course, terrifying. That should be the last thing that we want.

If Westminster are indeed to veto the referendum in 2023, as I'm pretty sure they will (one way or another), they must detail when and how one may be held in the future. Otherwise, they are playing with fire.

Calling It

We're now at the mid-point of June, and I'm on the verge of finishing my first book of the month. Given that last month started off as a good month for reading before ending with me dropping yet further behind, I'm going to call it early: there's no chance of me catching up on the reading goal. Indeed, my expectation is that I'll drop further behind, and quite possibly yet further behind with each month that passes.

That being the case I'm mostly abandoning that goal for this year, leaving in place a much-restricted goal: I'd like to read though the remaining four books from The List this year. Though even that feels like a challenge.

I'll Believe It When I See It

Today Nicola Sturgeon announced the start of a new independence campaign, with the intent to have a second referendum in 2023. Her stated intent is to request a Section 30 order, but to go ahead without if need be.

I'm afraid I'm deeply skeptical of this. Indeed, I'm doubtful of both her ability to do as she has said but even her intent to do so. I think there's a distinct possibility that this announcement is about placating factions within the SNP-voting base, but may well be intended at the outset to fail.

The biggest block, as far as I can see, is that Westminster retains the right to pass any legislation it wishes over any part of the UK. So if Holyrood does go ahead with a referendum in the absence of agreement, rather than challenging it in course (or perhaps as well as doing so), Westminster can simply pass legislation repealing the relevant Act. And, for good measure, barring Holyrood from trying again. And, unlike in the question of the referendum bill itself, there is absolutely no doubt about Westminster's right to do that - they certainly can.

 

The Actual Return to the Office

Funnily enough, my original post on the topic of returning to the office was oddly prophetic - rather than returning on the 30th of May I ended up coming back on the 7th of June, due precisely to a Covid outbreak. Fortunately LC has made a full recovery and, perhaps oddly, none of the rest of us seem to have been affected.

Thus far it really sucks - there have been IT problems, the commute has not been fun, my car has chosen this week to develop a new and annoying fault, and we're still in the position where every meeting needs to be via Teams anyway.

But it's only four days thus far, so with luck things will improve. They really need to.