My after-the-election post - this one has been delayed solely because I wasn't able to find the time to write it. The truth is that I don't think the Scottish election mattered all that much anyway - the by-election in Hartlepool had rather more importance.
Anyway, some thoughts:
The Result: The result was pretty much as expected - the SNP falling just short of a majority, but backed by a slightly-increased Green contingent. Actually, given the voting system and the tactical voting on both constituencies (by unionists) and on the list (by nationalists), it's pretty much certain that this is what we're going to get, give or take a seat or two.
(If you could somehow ban tactical voting, and enforce it - which you shouldn't and can't, respectively - we'd probably see an SNP majority based on the constituencies alone, a much smaller, or even non-existent Green group, and the other three parties slightly diminished. Conversely, a purely proportional system would give us an almost even Yes/No split, with the SNP being almost all of the Yes side, a few Greens, a couple from Alba, and the three unionist parties sharing the remaining seats.)
Anyway, given the rules of the game, the only people who can really feel aggrieved at the result are the Greens - it looks like they should have gained two more seats, but for a bizarre decision by the Electoral Commission. Oh well.
For the parties: The SNP will be quite happy. The Greens will be very happy, apart from the above. The Tories will likewise be quite happy. The Labour party will probably be disappointed, but they never really had a chance to increase their share, and will probably stay pretty much constant for the foreseeable future.
The Lib Dems will be gutted - losing one seat isn't too bad, but it does mean they're no longer considered a party grouping, which has various technical effects. It will be very interesting to see if they feature in the debates next time. If Alba doesn't qualify (and that's probably rightly so), the Lib Dems probably shouldn't either.
For Alba: I think the game is done. They may stick around, but I really can't see them going anywhere now. Come the General Election they'll lose their MPs, come the local elections they'll probably lose their councillors, and it's really hard to see where they go from there.
The only thing that concerns me about that is that it does mean it is effectively impossible to start a new party in Scotland and be successful. That means you now have a five-way choice for your vote, and if you don't agree with any of those five, you're politically homeless... and denied even the hope of representation. (And since there are a great many topics on which all five agree, there's a reasonable chance you may simply be out of luck.)
For me: As I said in my previous post, this was probably my last vote.
The mandate for a second independence referendum: It's actually very simple. We are a representative democracy, and mandates are determined by seats. If a majority of MSPs vote for something that, and that alone, constitutes a mandate.
So the SNP and Greens absolutely have a mandate to attempt to bring about a second independence referendum. (And let's be honest, if it was any other topic, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.)
Of course, the key word there is 'attempt'...
For independence: The dream is dead. This is where Hartlepool comes in.
Regardless of whether it was an SNP majority or a pro-independence majority, the sequence of events was always going to be the same: at some point Nicola Sturgeon will ask for a Section 30 order for a second referendum, and Boris Johnson will say "no". He pretty much has to say no - if he says yes there's a decent chance he'll lose, an then he goes down in history as the PM who lost the union, instead of as the man who delivered Brexit and guided us through the Pandemic. He's not going to do that.
So the key question is what happens then. Now, the last twice this has happened, the answer has been "nothing" - there has been a lot of huffing and puffing, but no election and no real move towards independence. My best guess is that that will happen again - and will always happen again.
But if the Scottish government does try to force the issue, they're still scuppered. Firstly, there will absolutely be a court challenge, which they may well lose. Secondly, even if that doesn't happen, the Westminster government can easily amend the Scotland Act to outlaw any referendum without a Section 30 Order (putting the matter to bed). Thirdly, if they don't want to do that, they can just repeal whatever law it is Holyrood has passed to bring it about - Westminster have retained the right to make whatever changes they want. Either of those latter two options can be done with emergency legislation, taking about a day.
Or Boris could simply shut down Holyrood completely. With any other PM that might be unthinkable, but with Boris...
The thing is, the Tories won Hartlepool, and didn't just win Hartlepool but won it with an outright majority of the vote. Despite everything - the disaster that is Brexit, the horrible death toll from the pandemic, the naked corruption of all that money passed to their cronies, the Arcuri affair, still they voted for Boris.
And it would be deeply disrespectful to suggest that voters didn't know all those things when they voted.
No. Whether it was due to the success of the vaccination programme, or they were grateful for the furlough scheme, or simple loathing of Labour, the fact is that the people of Hartlepool voted Tory in vast, vast numbers.
What that means is that Boris has a large (indeed, expanded) majority in the Commons. And, despite everything, he's still a vote winner. That means that the Tories will back him, and that means he can do basically whatever he wants.
Coupled with that, there's actually very little for him to lose in shutting Holyrood. Sure, 31 Tory MSPs would lose their jobs, but they're not exactly the shining lights of the party. He's not going to lose many votes in Scotland - and even if he does, Scotland is frankly an irrelevance in General Elections (and even moreso if we insist on voting SNP). Given that he's on record as considering devolution to be a disaster, if Holyrood starts to be a real nuisance, he might well just pull the plug.
The bottom line: There won't be another independence referendum in the next five years. There may well not be another set of elections five years from now, but even if there are, they'll be fought on exactly the same issue (singular) with almost exactly the same result.
The whole thing is just profoundly depressing.
#21: "Sharpe's Triumph", by Bernard Cornwell
#22: "Firefly: The Ghost Machine", by James Lovegrove
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