Something Quite Interesting Happened This Weekend

As we know, the Scottish Government have asked the Supreme Court to rule on whether they can have a referendum on independence without authorisation from Westminster. Westminster, for their part, argue that the constitution is a reserved matter.

It had been widely assumed, including by me, that the Supreme Court were going to rule in favour of Westminster. And, indeed, that even if the Supreme Court sided with Holyrood, Westminster would simply respond by amending the law to block a referendum. And that would be that - no referendum, ever, and we proceed to using a General Election as a de facto referendum.

But...

Last week we got a new king, and at the weekend King Charles was obliged to take various oaths. Including, in specific reference to Scotland, an oath to uphold the Claim of Right.

Now, the Claim of Right is one of the foundational documents of Scotland's constitution. It goes back to the time of Robert the Bruce - the Scottish nobles wanted to make him king, but he had been excommunicated by the Pope, and it was simply unthinkable that someone who had been excommunication could be sovereign in a Christian country. So the nobles wrote to the Pope asserting that while Robert would be king, he would not be sovereign - they made the Claim of Right that it was the people who are sovereign in Scotland. It also asserts that the people of Scotland have the right to choose the form of government that best suits them.

Now, the Claim of Right is usually a historical footnote. The only other time I'm aware of it being invoked was during the Glorious Revolution, to replace James VII with Mary II and William of Orange. That is, of course, an event that leads directly to King Charles III taking the throne.

So, anyway, my assumption had been that the Supreme Court would have considered any appeal to the Claim of Right to be largely a matter of dusty constitutional trivia, and should be put aside in favour of Westminster.

But because of the events of the last week, the Supreme Court will now be making its ruling a matter of a few weeks after a new King (from whom they derive their authority) has just sworn an oath to uphold that right. Suddenly it's not the dusty historical document it once was.

In other words, I'm now not quite so sure that the Supreme Court will side with Westminster. And, more than that, if the Supreme Court do decide, based on the Claim of Right, that Holyrood can conduct their referendum, I'm fairly sure that that same Claim will prevent Westminster from blocking it.

It may yet come to nothing. But it's interesting, at least.