How to Achieve Independence

I said in my previous post that independence really shouldn't be a talking point in the upcoming Scottish elections - regardless of the outcome the UK government won't authorize a second independence referendum, and there's nothing to be done in the absence of that authorization. (Incidentally, Swinney's claim that Cameron somehow set a precedent by authorizing the previous one is nonsense - it's one of the oldest and most absolute principles in what passes for the UK constitution that no parliament can bind its successors.)

But, that being the case, how should those who are in favour of independence proceed?

Fundamentally, ultimately, it's about a whole lot of really hard work: first, build a clear and obvious majority in favour of independence. They demand a second referendum from Westminster. If one is not forthcoming (as is likely), conduct the next Scottish elections as a de facto referendum, win a majority of the votes, and then declare independence.

But the really important point there is that those steps have to be followed in order. Before any of the other steps in the process can be pursued the first step needs to be completed. Right now, the latest polls indicate that there is a wafer-thin majority in favour of independence. But that fluctuates - a few months ago there was a wafer-thin majority against, and in a few months that's likely to be the case again. If push came to shove, and there really was a referendum tomorrow, it would almost certainly be a win for the union, again.

And the fact that that is still the case shows a shocking complacency on the parts of the SNP and the former "Yes" campaign. At the time of the 2014 referendum, there was a clear generational split - young people favoured independence, but over-50s were very strongly pro-union. Move on eleven years, and the demographic shift should mean a permanent pro-independence majority - older voters gradually die off, while more and more younger voters join the electorate. But that shift hasn't happened. Over the course of the last eleven years, people who were pro-independence have shifted their positions, such that the demographic split remains constant - younger voters favour independence while those over fifty are strongly pro-union. Whatever the SNP and the former "Yes" campaign have been doing has been counter-productive - the SNP government, in particular, have managed to turn people against their core aim.

And that's before we talk about the missed opportunities of Brexit, or the disasters that were Boris and Truss, and indeed the now-loathed Labour government. I rather suspect the SNP are now banking on an incoming PM Nigel Farage as a great recruiting sergeant for independence. If so, they're deluding themselves.

Ultimately, there were some key questions that the "Yes" campaign just couldn't answer to the satisfaction of enough people, notably on the economy and currency questions. As FM, Salmond ran a reasonably tight ship, but even so he was never able to convince enough people that that would translate into setting up an independent country. In the eleven years since then, neither the SNP nor the "Yes" campaign have been able to advance the debate at all, and nobody could now accuse the current SNP government of running a reasonably tight ship (nor, indeed, of being able to build one).

Fix That.

The SNP, assuming that they do indeed get to run the next Scottish government, need to get a real handle on all of the basic elements of government, most notably the economy. They need to end the constant shambolic incompetence they've shown of late, they need to get these damn ferries finished, and they need to stop being caught in these awkward expenses stories (justified or not).

Meanwhile, either the SNP or their related think tanks need to start grappling seriously with the topics of establishing a new country - critically, the setting up of a new central bank and a new currency. The answers of 2014 didn't win over enough people, and they definitely don't work now. What made sense when the UK was part of the EU just doesn't make sense post-Brexit.

I just really can't see any of that happening. Indeed, in order even to start, I think the SNP need some time out of office and need a really good clean-out of the too many mediocrities that infest it. And so, I'm afraid, I think independence is essentially a dead subject for the remainder of my lifetime - it's noise for the SNP to try to win votes (and their opponents to try to stop them), but not something that's actually going to happen.

#24: "The Running Grave", by Robert Galbraith