In my previous post, I said that we wouldn't get any real indication as to England's prospects until their match against Colombia. Well, we did, and the answer is... complicated.
There are clearly some weaknesses in England's play, especially in the loss of that last-minute goal and several minutes of fragility in the first period of extra time. On the other hand, they came through that and managed to finally win a penalty shoot-out in the World Cup.
From what I've seen, France are the favourites for the tournament, with their performance against Argentina being the best I've seen from anyone in the World Cup so far. On the other hand, France were really quite poor in their group games.
And England have been playing about as well as anyone, and they've been very fortunate with the draw, and especially with Spain being knocked out. So it's certainly not unreasonable to think they could reach the final... and in a one-off game anyone can have their day.