Boris Should Back Independence

It emerged yesterday that 63% of Tory members would rather see Scotland leave the UK than for Brexit not to happen. Indeed, fully 26% of Tory members would be actively happy for Scotland to leave the UK in any circumstance.

That being the case if, as expected, Boris Johnson becomes the next Tory leader (and PM), and if, as expected, the combination of Boris as PM and the prospect of a Hard Brexit in October does indeed push opinion polls in Scotland to show a majority in favour of independence, then at that stage Boris really should approach the Scottish parliament with an offer: let's legislate for the end of the Union.

The thing is, at present Scotland sends 59 MPs to Westminster, of whom 13 are Tories (but most or all of whom are likely to lose their seats in any General Election), while 46 are anti-Tory MPs. And the Tories UK-wide are a few seats short of a majority, and are dependent on support from the DUP to remain in power.

But if Scotland leaves, suddenly the arithmetic changes - the Tories would have an outright majority, they would no longer depend on the DUP, and the PM's hands are then untied to do a deal. (And, indeed, he could then go for the Northern Ireland-only backstop arrangement that was originally suggested - an arrangement that the Tories were happy with but the DUP absolutely were not.) Getting rid of Scotland solves a lot of problems for the incoming Tory PM.

Of course, there's a question of whether Scotland actually wants independence - yes, we've elected a majority of pro-independence MPs, a majority of pro-independence MSPs, and 50% of our MEPs are pro-independence, but the reality is that at least some of those votes are probably 'on loan' for various reasons. (That's why I very much hope we don't end up turning an election into a de facto referendum on independence - the system used will inevitably skew the results. We really should find out where people actually stand on this issue. But, of course, that involves the people involved actually playing ball. If they don't, other mechanisms will have to be found.)

But if the polls say there's a majority for it, and if both Westminster and Holyrood stand ready to legislate accordingly, presumably such a referendum could be conducted quickly and smoothly. And, indeed, if both governments are actively campaigning for independence, it's only going to go one way.

...

All that said, file this one under "never going to happen". While it would indeed solve a lot of problems, I don't think any incoming Tory leader could really bear to be the one to bring an end to the 'Union' part of "United Kingdom". Plus there's the small matter of our oil, whisky, tourism, financial services, renewable energy, beef, gin, clean water... I'm not entirely sure that the rest UK could really afford their independence.

#30: "Morgrave Miscellany", by Keith Baker and Ruty Rutenberg
#31: "In the Skin of a Lion", by Michael Ondaatje (a book from The List)