I Was Wrong

My previous post turned out to be in error. There is one combination of events that would represent an even more Scottish way to be eliminated, though it's massively unlikely...

As a consequence of yesterday's fixtures, the table is pretty open: the Czech Republic and England have both qualified, with four points each, and Croatia and Scotland are each on one point, with those two pairs still to play one another. Additionally, Scotland has the worse goal difference. So when Scotland play Croatia:

• If we lose, we're out. However, Croatia will almost certainly go through.
• If we draw, we're also out. Croatia will almost certainly also be eliminated - they'll be third in the group, but probably not one of the best third-placed teams.
• If we win, we're almost certainly through.

However, there is a permutation where we can actually go through as the second-placed team in the group, but only if the other result falls out just right:

• If England and the Czech Republic draw, they'll both be on five points. Regardless of how we do, Scotland could only manage third at best.
• If England win, they'll top the group on seven points, the Czech Republic will be on four points. And if Scotland also win, and thus get to four points, due to the head-to-head we would therefore be third. (I think, but am not 100% sure, that it is the head-to-head, not goal difference that would determine this.)
• However, if the Czech Republic win, they would top the group on seven points, and England would be on four points. If Scotland also won, we would be on four points, and of course the head-to-head was a draw. So we'd go to goal difference, and then to goals scored.

What that means is that, in the unlikely event that Scotland beat Croatia, and the very unlikely event that the Czech Republic beat England, and if the scores are big enough, it's just barely possible that we could get to second place.

Which means there is a new most-Scottish way to go out:

1. Scotland score early to lead their game 1-0.
2. England suffer an utterly disastrous collapse, and somehow contrive to lose their game 3-0.
3. With minutes to go, all of Scotland is gripped by the impossible fever of knowing that this time we're going to do it, and in fact we'll even make second place!
4. And then Croatia score the equaliser at the death, and in an instant we go from "second" to being out!

But, more likely, we'll revert to form and come ever so close but never quite manage to score.