Lockdown 2

Well, here we go again. As of last night we have a significant tightening of Covid restrictions. Thus far, this has stopped short of a proper second lockdown, but I very much suspect it is coming - in fact, I'm pretty certain that we really should have had a full-blown second lockdown, but the political will was just missing. So we'll pay the price for that one in a few more weeks.

Unlike the first lockdown, this one leaves me absolutely furious. Not because it isn't necessary - I absolutely agree that it is, and indeed that it should have gone further. However, it shouldn't have been. A few months ago we had this thing under control, all the metrics were going in the right direction, and we had an opportunity to eradicate it.

Instead our governments unlocked too fast, in too haphazard a manner, and lost control of the situation. And then they dithered and let the virus get back into a position where it could grow exponentially... and here we are.

And I'm afraid I consider the Scottish government pretty much as bad as Westminster in this regard. On the one hand, it is true that they didn't have all the levers available to an independent country, and so probably couldn't have managed outright eradication. On the other, I can't help but note that a few weeks ago there were an estimated 300 contagious people in the whole of Scotland, and now it has exploded out of control. They had a grip, and they lost it. So if they're better placed than Westminster, I'm afraid it's a difference of degree not of type - the report card still says "must do better".

Oh well. The damage is done, so that's my last moan about that.

Where that leaves us is that any notion of returning to the office is well and truly parked now, with almost no prospect of that happening this year. It's also likely that our Christmas lunch will have to be cancelled, or somehow done remotely, which is a shame. Otherwise, work will go on just as it has been.

For the time being, the schools are remaining open, and given the political costs involved, the powers-that-be will be absolutely determined to keep them open until they absolutely have to close them. I have my doubts whether they'll reopen after the October holiday. Likewise, there are no signs of Funsize's nursery closing, and I'd be surprised if that changes without a full-blown lockdown coming into force.

And the final factor that plays into this is the Furlough scheme, which was supposed to come to an end next month. The problem there being that if it ends then people will have to go out to work en masse, meaning that a lockdown won't be possible - it doesn't really matter what the government order on that front, without the necessary support people will just have to go to work. And yet, I'm increasingly fearful that the reason the scheme is coming to its end if less about blind ideology (which, frankly, wouldn't have brought it in in the first place), but rather for a simpler, harsher reason - the country is simply broke.

So...

My expectation is that these new measures will be largely ineffectual. I expect therefore that we'll see a much tighter set of restrictions coming soon, that may or may not be backed with an extension (or replacement) of Furlough... and depending on that may or may not be effective.

And, bluntly, as a consequence of all of that, I fear that Christmas is cancelled.