Goodbye

While waiting for my flight at Schiphol airport, I was musing on the fact that it was most likely the last time I would be flying home from mainland Europe while we were still a part of the EU. Which is a real shame - the EU in general, and Freedom of Movement in particular, have been a massive boon in my life, and I will be sorry to see that go, quite aside from the economic and political repercussions. (I appreciate that that isn't necessarily true for everyone. I'm just noting that it is true for me.)

Unfortunately, I now have no hope that Brexit can be avoided. The key issue is time - it is written into UK law that we're leaving on the 29th of March, and as long as that is true our government can neither ask for an extension to Article 50 nor can it rescind it. And while it is possible to remove that bit of law, the move to do so has to come from the government - there aren't any Opposition Days between now and then, and so it is the government that sets the business of parliament.

And the problem with that is the Theresa May doesn't want an extension. Even if she did, her cabinet really don't want an extension. And even if they did, the majority of Tory members want a No Deal Brexit. Which means we're relying on May doing something she doesn't want to do, and persuading her colleagues to do something they don't want to do, and doing so for the good of the country... knowing that it would split their party. That's as close to saying "it's not going to happen" as anything I can think of.

No extension means no second referendum, as there just isn't time. It also means that there's no time to negotiate a significantly different deal from the one that has already been rejected. It might be possible to tweak the existing deal, but I would be surprised if the current discussions result in anything more than another letter stating that there is no intention to use the backstop, and certainly no intention to 'trap' the UK in it... but nothing legally mandating that. And then the choice really will be May's Deal or No Deal.

I was at least heartened by the news that the EU are going to continue to allow visa-free travel, even in the event of No Deal. So we won't be totally isolated and our horizons won't have contracted completely.

But it's still a real shame. And I just thought it was worth noting that.