Shouldn't They Be Polling 15 Year Olds Too?

The big (but, of course, unreported) news from yesterday was that in the latest opinion poll support for Scottish independence has increased to 52% (once Don't Knows are removed), marking the first time in a very long time that there has been a poll showing a majority in favour. (There was one rogue poll just after the Brexit referendum, which is best ignored, and apart from that you're more or less back to a week before the 2014 vote.)

So, yeah, big news.

In among all of the (premature) jubilation in the pro-Independence camp, there has been one criticism pointed at the poll: it doesn't seem to include any polling of EU citizens (who were strongly No last time and would be expected to be strongly Yes next time), and it doesn't seem to include any polling of 16-17 year olds (who are expected to break very slightly in favour of Yes). That being the case, the suggestion is that those figures should probably be ever-so-slightly higher for Yes.

Except...

The polling was conducted under the assumption that "if there was a referendum tomorrow..." The problem with that is that there won't be a referendum tomorrow. Indeed, there's unlikely to be a referendum for several years - Westminster are likely to delay indefinitely, and if Holyrood try to take unilateral action there absolutely will be a legal challenge to the legislation. At the very least, it's near-certain that the earliest another referendum may occur will be in a year's time.

In which case today's 15 year olds will then be 16, and therefore be eligible to vote. Should they, as well as EU (and indeed non-EU) citizens, as well as today's 16-17 year olds not be being polled also? That is, shouldn't the polling really be across the whole of the relevant electorate?

Not that it really matters all that much. This is, after all, one poll. It's also one poll just after Boris Johnson became PM, and it's dealing with a very-much-hypothetical situation. Jubilation on the part of the Yes movement is very much premature... there's a long way to go, and things can change very quickly. Plus, of course, as we've seen from the Brexit referendum, wafer-thin majorities either way are a pretty bad thing. Although the stated conditions for the referendum will necessarily be that 50% + 1 vote is enough for the win, the target really should be an outright majority of the electorate - if independence is to happen, it really should carry with it the settled will of the people.