Lines of Succession

I'm no fan of Boris Johnson. I don't like his policies, I don't like his approach to politics as a whole, and I consider him yet another really strong argument for Scottish Independence.

I also don't think that the Queen should have asked him to form a government when Theresa May offered her resignation. Constitutionally-speaking, the Queen is supposed to appoint as PM the person who commands the confidence of the House of Commons, which at that time Boris manifestly did not (hence all those defeats he saw in his first few weeks). Instead, the Queen should have required May to remain in post * until either Boris could show he did command the confidence of the house or until an election took place. (The order of events matters because as a new PM Boris probably saw a boost in the polls that Boris-as-Tory-leader almost certainly would not. That may or may not have affected the outcome of the election.)

* As a member of the Privy Council, the PM cannot simply resign at will - he or she serves at the pleasure of the monarch. So while Theresa May could tender her resignation, it was officially for the Queen to decide whether to accept it or not.

But all of that is by the way. The fact of the matter is that Boris did win a landslide majority in the General Election and he therefore did have the right to form his government afterwards. Which includes naming his own deputy in case he was incapacitated... as indeed is the case now.

What that means is that right now, and in the short term, it is right that Dominic Raab stand in as Boris' deputy. And, if need be, it's right that he exercise whatever decision-making powers are needed to take us forward through the crisis. (I'm suspicious of why Raab was chosen for this role, but that doesn't really matter - it was Boris' prerogative to choose. I also don't necessarily agree with the specific choices that are being made... but that falls under my current stance of not commenting.) So, in the short term, Raab is the guy.

What is extremely worrying is what happens if it becomes apparent that Boris simply won't be able to continue - if he's incapacitated long-term (or worse).

In that case, it's no longer appropriate that the country be run by a deputy - there would need to be a new PM appointed. And, normally, that would be a matter of finding the person who commands the confidence of the House of Commons, which in turn normally means the leader of the largest party (in this case, the Tories).

The problems right now are two-fold: the House of Commons isn't sitting (so how can its confidence be judged), and it's not really practical to run any sort of leadership contest right now anyway.

Plus, there's the other issue - an awful lot of the contenders would look at the current mess, dealing with Covid-19, then the mother of all recessions that is almost certain to follow, and dealing with Brexit on top of that, and decline to step up. Nobody in their right mind would want to be in the top job right now. But by the same token, they'll also look at it and calculate that they also don't want whoever does end up doing it doing too good a job, so that there's an opening afterwards. From a purely self-serving point of view, the optimum strategy is to stay out of it... but quietly frustrate things from the sidelines. (Or to get behind a fairly hopeless compromise candidate, who is more or less good enough to get us through it... but only just, and with a lot of pain.)

Which would, of course, be an utter and complete disaster for all of the rest of us.

The upshot of all of this is that I am desperately hoping for a full and speedy recovery on the part of Boris Johnson. Not just because that's the right thing to do (which it is), but also because the alternative is terrible.