Chickens Come Home to Roost

The latest polling evidence makes for grim reading for the SNP. If the seats fall as this poll suggests, they'll lose 23 seats (technically 20 plus three others that were won by SNP candidates but are currently held by ex-SNP MPs). My own MP falls into that group.

Now, on the one hand, that's somewhat unfortunate, as our current MP is one of the more effective SNP MPs. On the other hand, given some of the things that she has expressed, I won't be particularly sorry to see her go. (Funnily enough, I'm not keen on outright misandry.) But on the other, other hand, the prospect of replacing a largely-useless SNP MP with a totally-useless Labour one isn't exactly thrilling.

But, fundamentally, the issue isn't really a swing from the SNP to Labour. The issue is that people who voted SNP last time are going to stay home, while everyone else votes tactically to replace them with Unionist candidates. 45% of the electorate will give you a landslide, but only if that 45% is motivated to turn out.

And therein lies the rub. The SNP are, frankly, not giving anyone a reason to bother voting for them. They're not going to be in government, so whatever policies they put forward, on just about anything, are irrelevant. (Plus, of course, if they were relevant then they'd need to be judged on their record in Holyrood, which in recent times is abysmal.)

That leaves the constitutional matter. Now, their "de facto referendum" could have been a foolhardy move, and there's a very real chance that had it succeeded it still wouldn't have made any difference. But it would at least have motivated the 45%. But they're not going for that. Instead, they're asking for a mandate to ask, yet again, for a Section 30 order for a second referendum.

Well, let's not bother with that. We know the answer already. If the Tories win the election, the answer is "no". If Labour win the election, the answer is "no". If there's a hung parliament in which either the Lib Dems or DUP hold the balance of power, the SNP will be locked out, and the answer is "no".

There's a tiny chance that we might end up with a hung parliament in which the SNP hold the balance of power. But here's a thing: Labour will never do a deal with the SNP to take power. Even if the 'deal' is "do whatever you want, and we'll vote for it, and ask nothing at all in return", Labour still wouldn't take it. They'd let the Tories back into power first, since the alternative is five years of the right-wing media saying "See?! We told you so!", followed by them being wiped out at the next and subsequent elections. So even if that tiny chance did pay out, Labour would let the Tories take power... and the answer is "no".

A Section 30 Order for a new referendum is long since dead. If that's what you're asking for, you're saying you've given up on independence. Which means that the 45% have no inbuilt reason to bother voting for you.

And so I'm left with no reason to bother with them. They've failed us for too long. The chickens have come home to roost.