Nothing Has Changed

Ah, the European Elections. Such fun.

As far as I can see, the upshot of those elections is that things are pretty much as they were: England wants Brexit (and a No Deal Brexit if that's what it takes), and are going to take the rest of us along for the ride. Wales also, mostly, wants Brexit, although there's some strong resistance there. Scotland doesn't want Brexit... but also doesn't quite want Independence, which is looking ever more like the only way to escape Brexit. (It will be really interesting to see what happens when people are finally confronted with a need to actually choose: Brexit or Independence.)

And yet, these results are also in some ways absolutely crucial.

Because right now the fate of the country lies first in the hands of Tory MPs and then in the hands of Tory members, and those groups aren't representative of the country as a whole.

And for that group, the election results are absolutely clear: Tory voters want Brexit, and if need be they'll go and vote for another party to get it.

I'm reasonably sure that what that means is that the new leader will be a hard Brexiteer. I'm very sure that the new leader will have to promise that we're going to leave on the 31st of October, come what may, and will have to deliver on that promise. Otherwise, the Tory party will look to take a major kicking at the next General Election.

(The big problem then is that the new Tory leader is likely to take office in mid-September at the earliest, which gives about six weeks to try to negotiate a new deal. So even if they're inclined to try, the chances of getting a deal that is able to get through parliament in time are negligible.)

I think we now have two chances to avoid No Deal, neither of which look promising:

Firstly, it's possible that there are enough Remain-minded Tory MPs to ensure that the final two candidates in their leadership contest are both soft Brexiteers. In which case the membership will choose between two people they don't much like, and we'll get Theresa May mark II - a period of paralysis, more can kicking and extensions, and nothing being done until that person is finally forced out.

But I don't think there are enough Remain-minded Tory MPs to control both final candidates, and I expect the Tory membership to go for the hardest Brexiteer on offer. Who might well try to negotiate a new deal, but who will certainly head for No Deal Brexit if nothing can be done prior to the 31st of October.

This brings us to the second chance: faced with an imminent No Deal, it's possible that enough Tories will defect to win a vote of No Confidence, and bring about a General Election. The problem being that if they do that then they wouldn't be able to stand as Tory candidates, and so they would be throwing away their political careers to bring about an election that might stop a No Deal Brexit. (Oh, and they'd have to act very quickly - it takes a minimum of seven weeks from a successful No Confidence motion to a General Election, and between mid-September and the end of October there are approximately six weeks.)

(There is one other, very slight, chance of a reprieve. Back in April, it seems that Theresa was all set to go for a No Deal exit. What stopped her was being informed that if she did that then Northern Ireland would leave the UK, and Scotland would almost certainly follow. Faced with the same hard truth, I think the hard Brexiteers would still go for it, but it's just possible that they would blink too.)

The upshot of all of this is that I'm reasonably sure we're now heading for a No Deal Brexit at the end of October. I don't really see any way of stopping it.

Which is a cheery thought for a Monday morning. We should have had the count on Thursday.

#24: "Book of Spells, Part I", edited by Gardner Dozois